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Black Swan Event before the end of the year?

by Eric Seyboldt

Last week we discussed how retirement should be a time of peace and fulfillment, yet it often comes with significant financial challenges and risks. One of the hurdles that we didn’t discuss is known as a Black Swan Event and it can have an extremely detrimental effect on your retirement lifestyle. Have they already begun?

A Black Swan event, a concept introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, refers to an unpredictable event with severe consequences. These events are defined by their rarity, significant impact, and the common belief in retrospect that they were foreseeable. Despite their low likelihood, Black Swan events can drastically influence financial markets, economies, and personal lives. As we look ahead to the rest of 2024, it is vital to grasp the importance of these events, particularly for retirees and investors who are especially susceptible to sudden economic changes.

1. Geopolitical Conflict in the Asia-Pacific Region

One potential Black Swan event could be a major geopolitical conflict in the Asia-Pacific, especially involving Taiwan and China. Taiwan's essential role in the global semiconductor supply chain means that any military escalation could severely disrupt technology supply chains globally. This conflict might quickly escalate into a larger regional war, potentially involving the United States and its allies.

The immediate economic consequences would include soaring energy prices, heightened stock market volatility, and interruptions in global trade. Retirees, who often depend on fixed incomes and stable investments, would face a sharp rise in living costs, particularly for energy and essential items. For investors, the initial market shock could significantly reduce the value of retirement portfolios, especially those with large investments in tech stocks and multinational businesses.

Additionally, a prolonged conflict could lead to a lasting global economic downturn, diminishing the value of retirement savings and increasing unemployment rates. Retirees might be forced to re-enter the job market, but opportunities could be limited due to a shrinking economy.

2. Collapse of a Major Financial Institution

Another potential Black Swan event is the collapse of a major financial institution, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Despite regulatory measures, systemic risks remain, especially with rising interest rates and high levels of corporate and consumer debt. The failure of a significant bank or financial entity could trigger a series of failures across the financial system, leading to a credit freeze.

For retirees, the implications would be severe. Many depend on the stability and performance of their investments to finance their retirement. A financial collapse would diminish asset values, reduce pension fund performance, and potentially threaten the payment of annuities and other fixed-income products. Moreover, the resulting economic downturn would likely increase unemployment and reduce economic activity, further burdening public and private pension systems.

Investors would also face substantial challenges. The rush to safer investments would cause a massive sell-off in equities, leading to steep declines in stock market indices. Bond markets, often considered safer, could also suffer due to liquidity issues and potential defaults. Diversified portfolios might not provide their usual level of protection, leading to significant wealth loss.

While many think these Black Swan events are unlikely, others say that the dominoes are already falling. Either way, their occurrence would have profound and wide-reaching effects on retirees and investors. Preparing for such scenarios through diversified investments, contingency planning, and staying informed about geopolitical and financial developments is crucial to mitigating potential risks. Grasping the nature of Black Swan events and their potential impact is crucial to safeguarding financial security amidst the uncertainties of 2024.

Reach out to us for a complimentary, 10-minute consultation call. Let's explore together how we can help you protect your assets, ensuring your golden years are as fulfilling and worry-free as you’ve always imagined. Email Eric at [email protected] or give us a call today to schedule your consultation. Let's make your retirement dreams a reality!

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Let the Bourbon Breathe

RESERVERANK

We know, dear Bourbon lovers, that Bourbon is not just a drink; it is an experience, an art form, a tribute to craftsmanship. And at the core of this fascinating world lies the subtle interplay between the tangible and the invisible.

With great enthusiasm, we present ReserveRank, an innovative technical analysis platform explicitly designed for Bourbon. We aim to unite art, raw materials, and cutting-edge tech to delve into the intricate interplay between Bourbon aging and the environment in which it occurs.

Air Pressure, Temperature, and Humidity

Bourbon and whiskey-making is a fine balance of science and art. The raw materials, methods, and mastery are essential, but there is another factor at play, something invisible yet profoundly influential: air.

In various regions across the globe, air impacts the maturation process of alcohol, from the hot and humid climates in India that speed up the process to the cooler regions like Scotland, where cold air slows down yeast activity. And the weather and climate add a distinctive touch when it comes to Bourbon, especially our American-born Bourbon.

Ohio's Gift to Bourbon Lovers

Our Bourbon's robust flavor is a tribute to Ohio's diverse climate, capturing various temperatures and humidity that breathe life into every barrel. The hot days are not just a mark of summer; they translate into what's fondly known as the "angel's share" – evaporated water inside aging barrels. This natural phenomenon leads to a hearty liquid with a considerable ABV, encapsulating a sped-up maturation process that truly represents the region's unique characteristics.

Within the walls of our warehouse, these temperature variations are not mere fluctuations; they are orchestrated opportunities. The varying heights in our storage facility are leveraged to create unique blends, with higher levels treated as prime real estate. Here, hot and humid air works its magic science, accelerating the aging process and enabling beverages to be bottled sooner without losing quality or taste.

But that's not all. Some of our warehouses even boast specially built racks to expose each barrel to the ever-changing Ohio air. This intentional exposure nurtures the bourbon, fostering those delightful nuances and rich flavors that true bourbon enthusiasts have come to love and expect from our brand. It's a dance between the seen and unseen, a craft that transforms simple ingredients into something extraordinary.

ReserveRank, go!

Our ReserveRank platform is not merely a passive observer of the Bourbon-making process; it is an active participant, engaging in near real-time monitoring and analysis to fine-tune every aspect of our Bourbon's creation, value proposition, and future.

Firstly, ReserveRank keeps a vigilant eye on the temperature—not just the ambient warmth in the warehouse but right down to the temperature within each barrel. One might wonder why temperature garners so much attention. The answer lies in the subtle dance between the Bourbon and the wooden barrel that houses it. Even minor temperature changes significantly affect this interaction, altering how flavors and aromas emerge and combine. It is like tuning a musical instrument: each note must work for the entire piece to shine.

Then, there is humidity, another character on this stage. ReserveRank continuously monitors humidity levels to calculate the evaporation rate, affectionately referred to as the "angel's share." In Bourbon maturation, speed is a nuanced variable—too fast, and you lose complexity; too slow, and you may miss that ephemeral perfection. Understanding humidity enables us to keep the maturation process on an optimal timeline, like a well-directed screenplay where every scene contributes to the final, breathtaking climax.

Air pressure is next in line. While it may seem less visible, changes in air pressure subtly influence how the Bourbon's flavors develop. The Bourbon flows in and out of the charred oak barrel during maturation, and the air pressure affects this delicate process. Think of it as the wind beneath the wings of our Bourbon, giving it just the right lift and movement to blossom into its fullest expression.

Another layer of complexity comes from the barrel's precise location within the warehouse. ReserveRank accounts for its position, whether it is on a higher floor where heat accumulates or near specific airflow channels. Every barrel resides in its uniquely ideal microclimate, creating a complex tapestry of flavors and aromas that are distinct yet harmoniously united.

Lastly, but by no means least, we consider the environmental footprint. ReserveRank measures our use of energy, water, and wood. Sustainability is not just a buzzword for us; it is a commitment to respecting the resources contributing to our Bourbon's excellence. Our eco-conscious approach ensures that while we look back concerning time-honored traditions, we also look forward with responsibility to our planet and future generations.

In summary, ReserveRank is not just a data collection tool; fine-tuning each barrel of Bourbon to its highest potential while upholding our pledge to sustainable practices. Each data point serves as a note in the complex composition that is Bourbon making, orchestrated with precision to create a final product as magnificent as it is memorable.

All these data points are collected every 15 minutes, creating a dense, rich dataset that is as complex as the Bourbon itself. And this is where we beyond data collection. The true value is in our machine learning platform creating value by processing this abundance of data. I can hear you saying, but, Andrew, get your damn techie fingers off my bottle. Do not worry. This is not about artificially modifying the Bourbon. This is about increasing enjoyment through process and knowledge. At a high level, this analysis breaks down as so:

ReserveRank's sensors and algorithms work in harmony to monitor key variables like temperature, humidity, and air pressure. With this data, we can make real-time adjustments to ensure that each barrel matures under optimal conditions. The result? A Bourbon that captures the essence of its environment while offering a remarkably consistent and refined flavor profile.

But the prowess of ReserveRank does not stop there. It goes beyond mere observation to the realm of foresight with predictive analysis. What if a cold front is approaching, or a sudden heatwave looms? ReserveRank anticipates the effects of these shifts on our Bourbon and enables preemptive adjustments. While we will delve deeper into what "adjusting" entails in future discussions, let us just say it is like having a weather-savvy master distiller who never sleeps.

On the topic of sustainability—have you ever heard of Net-zero Bourbon? If not, prepare to be introduced. ReserveRank continuously tracks the use of water, energy, and other resources, allowing us to minimize waste and champion energy efficiency. We firmly believe that crafting exceptional bourbon should not come at the cost of the environment, and with ReserveRank's aid, we are making strides towards a more sustainable future.

Of course, the true judge of any Bourbon is the enthusiast who savors it. Here, too, ReserveRank plays a significant role. It ensures that each barrel leaving our care provides an unparalleled tasting experience unique to our brand. By capturing and analyzing the maturation journey of every barrel, we create a compelling story that resonates with Bourbon lovers. It is a backstage pass to the intricate ballet of bourbon production, providing aficionados an immersive experience beyond just taste.

In essence, the ReserveRank platform represents a fusion of traditional craftsmanship with modern technology. It encapsulates our dedication to quality and innovation, marrying the age-old art of Bourboning with the precision of data science. Our embrace of this tech approach reflects not only our commitment to excellence but our desire to share the intricate beauty of Bourbon-making with enthusiasts around the world.

Take Away

Remember, the next time you pour yourself a bit of Bourbon, toast to the unseen elements that have shaped it. Consider the delicate dance of air, temperature, and craftsmanship that has placed that rich, vibrant drink in your hand.

Stay tuned as we explore more aspects of ReserveRank in upcoming posts. The science and art of bourbon-making are about to meet the future, and we invite you to be part of this exciting journey.

Let us raise a glass to the beautiful balance between innovation and tradition; all stirred together with the rich aroma of Bourbon floating in the air. Cheers!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Andrew Newby

Andrew is a passionate entrepreneur and experienced tech strategist with a deep love for the Bourbon industry. As the CEO of The Bourbon Reserve, he leads the charge in navigating the exciting world of Bourbon investments. Andrew's entrepreneurial spirit extends to co-founding The Toledo Spirits Co. and HEAVY Beer Co., where he has played an instrumental role in their growth and success. Alongside his ventures in the spirits industry, Andrew boasts a strong background in software product development, making him a versatile leader in both the Bourbon and tech worlds.

Fixed annuities can be an essential component of a well-rounded retirement strategy, offering security, predictability, and efficiency in financial planning.

Here are current fixed annuity rates and their durations from Top A-rated carriers (subject to change at any time, not FDIC insured):

Don’t Wait To Lock These In!

3-year: 5.50% (under $100k Deposited)

3-year: 5.85% (over $100k Deposited)

5-year: 5.95% (under $100k Deposited)

5-year: 6.30% (over $100k Deposited)

Please feel free to email Eric at [email protected] if you’d like to ask any questions or request information on these fixed annuities or other retirement topics that are on your mind.

REAL ASSETS, Invest Like the Ultra-Wealthy 

Exploring Real Assets as a Defensive Strategy

Amidst the unpredictable economic climate, an increasing number of astute investors are looking toward tangible assets to shield their retirement savings. Assets such as physical gold, or even unconventional choices like barrels of a great American product like Bourbon, are becoming popular choices. These Real Assets are not merely safeguards in times of monetary easing and inflationary spikes, they also stand as robust diversification options even during stable periods.

Real Assets have a historical track record of outperforming other investment avenues during economic downturns, providing a sturdy hedge against potential crises. For anyone considering a fortified approach to securing their financial future, integrating Real Assets into your investment portfolio could be a wise and lucrative move.

Considering the volatile state of today's economy, investing in the “Real Assets” category could be the strategic move to fortify your financial future! Ready to explore how these tangible assets can enhance your Investment Portfolio? Let’s connect to pave your path to a more secure and Prosperous retirement.

Allocating funds into the asset class known as “Real Assets” may be a strategy that you should consider.

Ask us how to Rollover a portion of Your IRA or 401k To A BOURBON IRA (www.bourbon.fund/how-it-works/) or a GOLD IRA (see link below) and:

• Safeguard your assets from the collapsing dollar

• Incorporate the ‘REAL ASSET’ class into your portfolio like the ultra-wealthy

• Hedge against the current high-inflation conditions

• Protect your retirement assets against economic crises

Just get in touch. We make it easier than ever.

Feedback or Questions?

You’re invited to get in touch with us if you’d like to find out how the Novus Financial Group can help you on your journey to a happy, fulfilling life in Retirement. 

We have a lot of great information, as well as podcasts from our radio show ‘The Financial Insider’, and tools on our website - www.novusfg.com.

[email protected] www.novusfg.com [email protected]

Office: 614-943-2265

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Investment advisory services are offered by duly registered individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Novus Financial Group are unaffiliated entities.

The content we provide here isn’t financial advice and cannot be taken as such. Please speak to your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Also, note that every investment comes with its risks and drawbacks. Lastly, we would like to remind you that past results cannot guarantee future returns.

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